1. Tailoring National Financial Accounts to the Users’ Needs Using Administrative and Other Large Granular Datasets

    Filipa Lima*, Rita Poiares, António Jorge Silva

    Banco de Portugal, Lisboa, Portugal

    Abstract: Economic and financial reality is increasingly more complex and portraying it in a precise and timely fashion challenges the statistical function of central banks. Furthermore, users have been requesting ever more comprehensive and detailed information. In this context, it is crucial to develop tools that allow users to see the details without losing sight of the big picture. National financial accounts are of particular interest when dealing with these challenges, as they provide an overall view of the financial interlinkages between institutional sectors helping in the identification of sector vulnerabilities, imbalances and potential over-exposures to certain financial instruments. Banco de Portugal places a strong emphasis on the compilation of national financial accounts, namely, by making extensive use of administrative and other large granular databases. In this paper we show how these databases – which include, among other sources, the Central Balance Sheet Database, the Securities Statistics Integrated System and the Central Credit Register –, are being used to tailor the national financial accounts statistics to the specific users’ needs. Additional insights brought by the Household Finance and Consumption Survey are also illustrated.

    Keywords: sector accounts, micro-data, indebtedness, flow of funds, Household Finance and Consumption Survey.

    Pages: 177 – 184 | Full PDF Paper

  2. Strategic coordination of a National Statistical System: the case of the Portuguese Statistical Council

    João Cadete de Matos*, Olga Monteiro, André Dias

    Banco de Portugal, Lisboa, Portugal

    Abstract:

    Official statistics are a public good. To ensure that this purpose is rightfully achieved, it is essential to have a strong National Statistical System, in which a commitment of all parties involved is a necessary condition to meet its full potential. The design of such a system should provide: (a) a clear division of responsibilities and work between the participating institutions; (b) a framework for adopting common methodologies, concepts and nomenclatures and sharing lists of statistical units and administrative data; and (c) an institutional setup where producers and users of official statistics interact productively.

    In this context, this paper explores the role and the importance of the Statistical Council as a strategic coordination body of the Portuguese Statistical System. To this extent, we discuss the enhancements of official statistics that this forum promotes and highlight the role of this body in the development of core projects with spillovers across all stakeholders of the National Statistical System.

    Keywords: Statistical Council, statistical coordination, statistical system, official statistics.

    Pages: 185 – 191 | Full PDF Paper

  3. Modeling Reliability for Exponential Distribution Using Maximum Likelihood Method (Case study: A.T.M in Sudan)

    Ismaeel Ahmed Mohamed Ahmed, Ahmed Mohamed Abdallah Hamdi, Afra Hashim Abdelateef

    1. Currant PhD Student, University of Sudan for Science & Technology, Faculty of Science, Department of Statistics.
    2. Associate Professor, University of Sudan for Science & Technology, Faculty of Science, Department of Statistics.
    3. Assistant Professor, University of Sudan for Science & Technology, Faculty of Science, Department of Statistics.

    Abstract: The exponential distribution is the most commonly used life distribution in applied reliability analysis. The reason for this is its mathematical simplicity and that it leads to realistic lifetime models for certain types of item. The aim of this study is to apply lifetime models on the failure time of the automatic teller machine (ATM) in Sudan and estimate the reliability of the machines, in order to compare between machines, failure’s data has been taken from Central Bank of Sudan, which is, type of machine, type of failure, Downtime, Uptime and outage duration in Hrs. during the period of time (1/1/2017-30/6/2017). The comparison between five machines selected randomly out of 28 machines have done. Through the lifetime models estimation (failure distribution, reliability, hazard rate, and mean time to failure (MTTF)), using maximum likelihood estimators in estimate the parameters and reliability of exponential distribution. The comparison is executed through reliability values; from analysis results it is clear that, the failure time of all machines follow exponential distribution with one-parameter, according to the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and Chi-Squared test for goodness of fit result. The machines no (B5 and B35) have high reliability compered by other machines. When we predict the reliability according to the time we found that the reliability decrease and hazard rate increase and there is relationship between MTTF and reliability.

    Keywords: Reliability, Failure rate, Hazard rate, Exponential Distribution, Maximum likelihood, Kolmogorov-Smirnov test, Chi-Squared test.

    Pages: 192 – 209 | Full PDF Paper

  4. N-S Equations and Relativistic Structures and Engineering Applications

    Wang Yiping1,2

    1. Zhejiang Quzhou Association of Senior Scientists and Technicians, Zhejiang Quzhou 324000.
    2. China • Qianjiang Mathematics and Power Engineering Institute, Zhejiang Quzhou 324000.

    Abstract: It is proposed that the Navier-Stokes (NS) equation is a high-power dynamic equation of infinite multiscale vortex flow and strong nonlinearity. It is a description of the stochastic parallel, serial, equilibrium, transformation and transformation of infinitesimal fluid elements. Defining a point state is a circular function of an infinite set of fluid elements and an infinite combination, establishing a logarithm of a dimensionless quantity that has a monotonicity, reciprocity, and isomorphism at the end of the state of the point, and constructs the theory of relativity (Logarithmically) . Perform circular log-power equations without exact fluid elements and solve them accurately. Engineering Applications: Solving the design and manufacture of long vortex vanes; creating a thermodynamic machine with bi-directional vortex internal vacuum negative pressure six programs to produce super-symmetrical new energy sources, physics called “vacuum energy” . There are 13 invention patents in China, such as “Engine”, “Generator” and “Vortex rotary machine”.

    Keywords: Fluid mechanics, Point-state, Relativistic structure (Logarithmically), Swirl vane, Supersymmetric energy.

    Pages: 210 – 233 | Full PDF Paper