The Role of Big Data and Surveys in Measuring and Predicting Inflation

Bruno Tissot

Head of Statistics and Research Support, Bank for International Settlements (BIS), Basel, Switzerland, and Head of the Secretariat of the Irving Fisher Committee on Central Bank Statistics (IFC).

Abstract: Monitoring and forecasting price developments is an important issue for public authorities. Measuring inflation requires significant resources, and substantial methodological work has been developed over the past decades to support this task. The recent emergence of Big Data can provide many opportunities in this context, for instance to produce timelier indicators, enhance the collection of specific types of prices, and take due consideration of economic agents’ expectations. However, there are important challenges when using big data-type of information, and traditional statistical surveys have continued to prove their usefulness. This suggests that measuring and forecasting inflation should continue to benefit from drawing on multiple, complementary approaches.

Keywords: Prices, Public policy, Internet, Inflation expectations, Nowcasting.

Pages: 9 – 17 | Full PDF Paper