A Bootstrapped Vector Autoregressive Model for Tourist Arrivals in Zimbabwe: A Case Study of Great Zimbabwe Monuments (2009-2012)
Abstract: The time series monthly data for local and international tourist arrivals at Great Zimbabwe Monuments from January 2009 to December 2012 were analyzed and modeled using bootstrapped vector autoregressive method. The first difference of the monthly bootstrapped data suggested stationarity. A vector autoregressive (VAR) model was estimated since there was no cointegration among the variables as suggested by the Johansen’s cointegration test. Consumer Price Index (CPI), exchange rate and tourist arrivals were all accommodated in the model. Zimbabwean tourist visits are seasonal as evidenced by high numbers in August and December every year.
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