The Relation between Atmospheric Teleconnection Patterns and Precipitation Extremes over Europe

O. Kutay Mihliardic, Yurdanur S. Unal

Department of Meteorology and Atmospheric Sciences, Istanbul Technical University, Maslak, 34469, Istanbul, Turkey.

Abstract:

Atmospheric correlations have profound importance for the perception of short-term and long-term variability in climate. The most important correlations are recognized as atmospheric teleconnection patterns which are instant correlations in the variations of large-scale atmospheric parameters at certain points on the Earth. These patterns may significantly lead to the variability in the climate and influence the extreme precipitation. Possible droughts and floods could originate as a consequence of excessive decrease or increase in precipitation amount and frequency.

The main aim of this paper is to obtain a better understanding of the relation precipitation extremes in the whole European domain that are relevant to the several representative atmospheric teleconnection pattern indices by applying various statistical approaches valid for consecutive 38 winter seasons. Relations were checked by means of Pearson and Spearman correlation methods for selected winter seasons. What is more, Multiple Linear Regression method was applied to determine the inter-connection between these atmospheric teleconnection patterns and the extreme precipitation frequencies exceeding thresholds settled. Then, according to the exceeding frequencies the determined critical values, most of the regions over Europe have a high negative and positive coefficients of these atmospheric teleconnection pattern indices with the precipitation totals and their frequencies valid for winter seasons (statistically significant at the 90%, 1 mm/day, 10 mm/day threshold levels).

Keywords: atmospheric teleconnection patterns, precipitation extremes, multiple linear regression, Europe.

Pages: 100 – 110 | Full PDF Paper