• Using Box – Jenkins Models to Forecast the Cotton Crop In Iraq

    Assist. Prof. Dr. Ahlam Ahmed Juma, Hala Muthanna Mohammed


    The Forecasting of the time series of subjects that received attention especially effective role in contributing to the building plans for the future in all areas of life, including industrial, commercial, agricultural and other, As there were many methods of time series is the most important models developed worlds Box & Jenkins in 1970 and through the development of a methodology in the study and analysis of Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Models ARIMA (p, d, q).

    The research aims to the forecasting using linear time series and reaching a the best model can Predictable through, it was used non- seasonal Box-Jenkins models and were used the time series of the total area and the yield and production of cotton crop in Iraq for the period (1941 – 2011) was included forecasting future years (2012-2016).

    Pages: 714 – 729 | Full PDF Paper