Imports in Fob Delivery Terms

Dr. Aylin Kolbaşı

Turkish Statistical Institute, Devlet Mah. Necatibey cad. No:114,Ankara,Türkiye.

Abstract: Foreign trade data and indicators are important resources for many economic analysis. In particular, the Central Bank of the Republic of Türkiye uses these data for the calculation of balance of payments. Export data published by TurkStat are calculated according to free on board (FOB delivery terms) and the import data are calculated according to the cost of goods, insurance and freight (CIF delivery terms). In the balance of payments account calculated by the Central Bank, export and import is used by FOB delivery terms. Therefore, imports data should be calculated according to FOB delivery terms at the same time. For this purpose, freight and insurance values should be calculated and therefore insurance and freight rates should be determined. In this study, various analyzes were performed to determine the freight and insurance ratios. First, the variables thought to have an effect on freight and insurance rates were determined, and whether this effect was statistically significant was tested with ANOVA method. The data set was grouped taking into account the variables affecting freight and insurance rates and freight and insurance ratios were calculated for each group. Before the calculation, outliers were determined for each group. Adjusted Box-Plot and median z-score methods were used for detect outliers. After determining the outliers, freight and insurance ratios were estimated using an arithmetic mean. Imports, freight and insurance values were calculated by using these ratios and compared with the values calculated by Central Bank calculated.

Keywords: Outlier, foreign trade, outlier detection, outlier detection methods, FOB.

Pages: 1 – 19 | Full PDF Paper