Developing Deterioration Prediction Model for the Potable Water Pipes Renewal Plan – Case of Jubail Industrial City, KSA
Ali Madan Al-Ali, Jean Laurent, Jean Philippe Dulot
Marafiq-Saur Operation & Maintenance Company.
Abstract: The aim of this study is to identify the appropriate parameters for predicting the potable water pipes deterioration. The study evaluated the strength of some variables related to pipe breaks probability of failure based mainly on logistic regression model. The independent variables included in the study are static variables such as pipe diameter, pipe length and pipe material in addition to some dynamic (time-based) variables such as pipe age, water pressure and water velocity. The pipe break history (number of pipe breaks) for each pipe segment is used as dependent variable to be predicted in the statistical model. The resulted prediction equation is then used to calculate the failure probability for each pipe in the potable water network. Finally, prioritization of pipes is performed and the annual renewal plan is developed for the city of Jubail Industrial City in KSA based on the model results.
Keywords: GIS, Geographical Information Systems, Pipes, Renewal, Logistic, Regression.
Pages: 359 – 373 | Full PDF Paper